1. The purpose is press statement is to share with the media the findings of SEEDS Sabah Electoral Project 2020 from its second survey. The first survey was conducted from 24 August 2020 to 31 August 2020, involving 2350 respondents across Sabah’s 25 parliamentary constituenties.
2. The first survey indicated that there was a strong inclination of support to Warisan and its allies eventhough the Warisan-led government was not popular. The first survey also found that Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and the PN-led federal government were hugely popular. Despite their popularity, the voters’ inclination was still towards Warisan and its allies. The issues of illegal immigrants, MA63 and government aid (BPN) were salient in influencing the voters’ voting decision. A majority of the respondents also identified oil royalty as the most salient issue under MA63. Inferences to the various issues indicated that the respondents were concerned about their economic wellbeing and wanted something urgent to be done to address their basic infrastructural needs.
3. The first survey indicated that PN/BN/allies leading the popularity support by 4 percent, with STAR Sabah and PCS (Parti Cinta Sabah) leading the race among the local-based parties.
4. The second survey from 18-24 September 2020 polled 1138 respondents. Compared to the first survey, the second survey was hampered by numerous restrictions due to the spread of Covid19. To complement the enumeration on the ground, a Respondent Driven Sampling was used in which the respondents were asked to fill out the questionnaire online via a link. This approach was used especially for “out-of-reach” respondents and for those living in high risk areas.
5. The key findings of the second survey are as follows:
a. There is a noticeable shift in political allegiance from BN to PN from the first sweep to the next. PN has benefited greatly from this PRN campaign in terms of political visibility even in far flung rural areas. Overall, BN has lost 10% ± 3%, popular share of voter inclination and PN has gained 10% ± 3%. The implication of this is the decision of BN, PN and PBS to slug it out in 17 seats will heavily split the votes and give the advantage to their opponents
b. Factoring the margin of error, Warisan Plus and the third force contenders have not moved much in terms of popular share of voter inclination
c. In BN majority seats, BN has lost 7% ± 3%, popular share of voter inclination and PN has gained 10% ± 3%. This gain from PN was obtained through the share of BN and also Warisan Plus. In BN marginal seats, BN lost its voter inclination share substantially by more than 10%, whereas PN gained 13%
d. Local-based parties also gained almost 5% share of voter inclination in these marginal seats
e. In Warisan marginal seats, BN lost its voter inclination share substantially by more than 20%, whereas PN gained more than 10%. However, Warisan Plus has managed to capture the larger share of the voter inclination by 15%
f. The top three issues which may influence the voters’ voting decision are infrastructural development, performance of state government and performance of federal government. Issues of party hopping and the Philippine claim to Sabah were found to be less salient
g. PN was viewed more favourably compared to Warisan in terms of the handling of the Covid19 crisis
h. 51% of the respondents said they would vote for the party than the individual but among the youth, the individual was more preferred than the party
6. Overall, there is still no clear winner in sight. The second survey shows that Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) comprising PN, BN and PBS leading with Warisan Plus trailing behind. Compared to the first survey, the inclination of support to the local parties has increased to 15.9% (from 7.8%)
7. It is to be emphasised that due to the imbalance among constituencies, a fair representation per parliament is not achievable, so unlike the previous sweep, this sweep will avoid analysis on a per constituency basis. This analysis is an exploration of voter trends and sentiments, it DOES NOT SERVE AS ANY PREDICTION OF ANY SORTS. Kindly refrain from quoting otherwise. The multidimensional analysis will narrow down the number of samples which would then reflect on the error margin. Our analysis takes this into account and specifically indicates the number of samples with its corresponding error margin for statistical interpretation.
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Contact:

Dr Arnold Puyok
Chairman
Society Empowerment and Economic Development of Sabah (SEEDS)
0122245204