Joe Lodrige's explanation on where Amelia Earhart went missing.
Joe is a 25K+ hr military & commercial pilot dual rated as both a Pilot & Navigator who retired as a Major, USAF, from the 89th Squadron
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, Andrews AFB. Joe has unique qualifications almost unknown in today's flying community. Joe won the first USAF Flying Rodeo for USAF Air Drop delivery. This is a video he made of his speech at the Order of Daedalions, Flight 60 ( Flying Tigers) -- yes, Those Flying Tigers, in Alexandria, LA on 20 April.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Thanks for your comments. Based on your feedback, I want to better explain some parts of my theory.
Lets start at the 07:00 GMT fix, on course. Due to weather and darkness, he had two methods
to maintain course: (1) use forecast winds, with no mathematical errors in applying drift correction,
variation and compass deviation to his true course to obtain a compass heading. With the actual winds being easterly,
he should have remained close to his desired track. (2) take a star fix , weather permitting, to provide
a more accurate course line.
In either case he would have a course line to cross with his sun line to get a Most Probable Position (MPP).
Either method would have provided them two options : (1) " Land Fall", by advancing the sun line to fall over Howland, then turn off
course 20-30 degrees to definitively know from which side of the island they were approaching, then turn
on the sun line toward Howland. (This is what I believe he did). (2)or Dead Reckon from his MPP or Fix to destination
Then accomplish a square search if the island was not visual at ETA.
Due to fuel considerations, I believe he chose the land fall procedure because he thought it was the fastest way to find the island.
The most probable reason they missed the island was due to an error in the sun line. Certainly, the lack of radio direction finding was
an additional contributing factor. However, accurate celestial navigation should have allowed them to arrive overhead Howland Island. I consider
an erroneous sun sighting was a critical factor. The aircraft configuration, sun low on the horizon and weather conditions
would have made it difficult to obtain an accurate celestial sighting.
I hope in the near future some interested citizens will finance an organization, like Nauticos, to undertake
a concentrated sea bottom search that includes the area I predicted.
Sincerely,
Joe Lodrige
