When are the local election results announced? Hour-by-hour guide

The local elections on Thursday have national implications. They represent the most significant test of voter opinion before the general election and are critical to Rishi Sunak’s future.

Anxious Tory MPs will be analysing the results in their local areas — and nationally — to see what it means for their seats before deciding whether to take the extraordinary step of trying to unseat their fourth leader in less than five years.

Labour will be hoping that their 20-point lead in the national polls translates into success at a local level — while both parties will be anxiously looking at how much of a threat Reform may pose in different parts of the country. So which are the most critical races and when will we find out the results?

• Is there a local election in my area — and who are the candidates?

The mayoral contests

Voters will go to the polls in 11 mayoral contests on Thursday, and at least two of them — Tees Valley and the West Midlands — are potentially pivotal to Sunak’s future as prime minister.

Tees Valley (Friday, 12.30pm)

Tees Valley is potentially totemic for the Conservatives. In May 2021, at the zenith of Boris Johnson’s premiership, the Tory candidate, Lord Houchen of High Leven, won with an extraordinary 72.8 per cent of the vote. Should the Tories lose from what appeared to be an unassailable position it would send shivers through Tory MPs in Red Wall seats. YouGov polling this week had Houchen on 51 per cent of the vote, with his Labour rival, Chris McEwan, on 44 per cent, but it looks incredibly tight.

The Tories have been attempting to use Tees Valley to manage expectations — by highlighting the potential risk of losing it they can claim partial victory if they hold on to it. But that expectation management could rebound spectacularly if it does go to Labour.

• Local elections 2024: key timings, latest polls and what to expect

West Midlands (Saturday, 3pm)

Although Labour has a strong lead in national opinions, the local popularity of the Tory incumbent, Andy Street, has led to a closely fought contest for the West Midlands mayoralty. Street, who has been mayor since 2017, has succeeded in distancing himself from the government and the succession of Tory prime ministers who have passed through No 10. A YouGov poll this week found that the result was too close to call.

London (Saturday, 1pm)

While Sadiq Khan is expected to win a third term as London mayor, what both Labour and Tory strategists will be looking at is the scale of his victory. Opinion polls suggest that he has a lead of more than 20 points over his Tory rival, Susan Hall. But a poll on Wednesday suggested this lead had been cut to just ten points.

The Tories will be particularly looking at how the Conservative vote holds up in London’s outer boroughs, where it will be defending seats at the general election.

• Who is running for London mayor? 2024 election candidates and polls

York and North Yorkshire (Friday, 3pm)

A new mayoralty that includes Sunak’s constituency should normally be safe ground for the Conservatives. However, some polling has put Labour ahead — a result that would prove hugely embarrassing for the prime minister and stoke a sense of Tory crisis

North East (Friday, 12pm)

In another area electing a mayor for the first time, Labour faces a strong independent challenge in what has previously been rock-solid territory from Jamie Driscoll, who was blocked from standing for the party. While Driscoll insists he is not “particularly left wing”, his candidacy has become a lightning rod for progressive discontent with Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership. If Labour fail to take the mayoralty it would be an ominous sign for a Starmer government.

Council elections

Most councils are electing only a minority of councillors but some key local authorities could change hands. A bad night for the Tories will see them losing half of the 1,000 council seats they are contesting — a good night would be fewer than 300.

The projected national vote share, which is calculated on the basis of council results, will also give the clearest sense of the state of the parties going into a general election campaign.

Hartlepool (Friday, 1am) Labour has the chance to take control of the council in a symbolic seat, where loss in a Westminster by-election in 2021 marked the lowest point of Starmer’s leadership.

Harlow (Friday, 3am) is a bellwether seat where Labour should be taking control from the Conservatives to be confident of heading for victory

Hastings (Friday, 3pm) is another seat where the Greens are challenging, but Labour is also being strengthened by families moving out of London in search of more space

Dudley (Friday, 4pm) is the kind of red wall seat Labour needs to win at the general election and taking control of the councils from the Conservatives is the first bar to clear

Wokingham (Friday, 4pm) The Liberal Democrats are already the largest party in Sir John Redwood’s council and taking control would signal they are ready to challenge the Conservatives in a swath of affluent commuter seats

Bristol (Friday, 6pm) Labour is being run close by the Greens in a city home to many progressive voters disillusioned by Starmer’s move to the centre and stance on the conflict in Gaza. Success for the Greens will give them hope of a second parliamentary seat later this year, while they are also challenging Labour in places like Norwich and Worcester

Dorset (Friday 7pm) The Lib Dems are also hoping to show they are regaining old southwestern heartlands by taking control of councils in Dorset and Gloucester

Blackpool South by-election

The by-election was triggered after Scott Benton, who won the seat for the Tories in 2019, was forced to resign after The Times disclosed that he had offered to lobby ministers in exchange for money. The seat is widely expected to fall to Labour — Benton had a majority of just 3,690 — but the more pertinent question is whether Reform UK, the right-wing party, can beat the Tories into second.

The combination of local Tory scandals and the prominence of migration as a local issue — there is particular concern about a hotel being used to house asylum seekers — could help Reform at the ballot box.