Chinese Stocks Surge on Return From Holidays as Euphoria Extends

Chinese stocks listed onshore jumped as trading resumed following a week-long holiday, with encouraging home sales and consumption data giving fresh impetus to a rally sparked by Beijing’s stimulus blitz.

The benchmark CSI 300 Index climbed almost 11% in early trading before paring its advance. The measure had gained for nine straight sessions through Sept. 30 before heading into the Golden Week break. In Hong Kong, a gauge of Chinese shares slid 4.8% after having rallied almost 11% in the period that onshore markets were shut.

Sentiment toward Chinese equities has seen a dramatic turnaround since late-September as the authorities unveiled a range of supportive measures that included interest-rate cuts, freeing-up of cash for banks and liquidity support for stocks. Wall Street heavyweights including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc and BlackRock Inc. have upgraded the once-beaten down stock market amid bets of further stimulus.

China’s top economic planner said it will hold a press briefing Tuesday morning to discuss a package of policies aimed at boosting economic growth.

“The durability of this China rally will depend on action following words on the fiscal side of the equation,” said Aleksey Mironenko​​​​, global head of investment solutions at Leo Wealth in Hong Kong. “The key thing we are watching going forward — what policies will be announced in coming weeks following the Politburo and State Council statements? That will determine if our overweight is a tactical one — to be taken off as relative valuations change – or a strategic one.”

China’s government bonds extended their pre-holiday declines, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising seven basis points to 2.22%, as investors dumped haven assets to chase the stocks rally.

Early signs show that Beijing’s latest steps to revive the housing market have had an immediate impact, judging from reports of brisk sales and buyer interest during the Golden Week holiday. In cities with residential projects running promotions, visits by prospective home-buyers climbed at least 50% from a year earlier, CCTV news reported, citing the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.

Separately, China’s in-store and dine-in consumption rose around 40% on Meituan’s online platform during the break, Shanghai Securities News reported, citing data from the e-commerce firm. Passenger trips on China’s railway network rose to a record high on the first day of the week-long holiday, while nationwide travel increased 3.2% on year during the first six days of the break, according to Citigroup Inc.

Read more: Morgan Stanley Scales Back China Underweight on Policy Easing

The CSI 300 Index is trading at 13.3 times forward earnings, slightly above its five-year historical average. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index trades at 9.7 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months, less than half that of the S&P 500, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The world’s second-largest equity market has had multiple boom-and-bust cycles. Confronted by slowing growth and disinflationary pressures, China swung into stimulus mode in late 2014, setting off an eye-watering stock market rally that spectacularly crashed back to earth in mid 2015. Back then, the nation’s retail traders ramped up leverages and sent the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index more than doubled its level from October 2014 to June 2015. Then the equity gauge plunged more than 40% in two months.