Romanian Premier Keeps Lead in Poll Ahead of Presidential Ballot

From Andra Timu, published at Thu Nov 14 2024

Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu is favored to win the first round in a presidential election next week and will likely face a runoff against the leader of an ultra-nationalist party, a survey showed.

Ciolacu, who heads Romania’s ruling Social Democratic Party, would get 24.8% of the votes if elections were held next Sunday, according to a survey by pollster Inscop commissioned by the Libertatea newspaper. George Simion, the leader of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, would come in second with 21.3% of the votes of those who say they will definitely participate in the Nov. 24 ballot.

Ciolacu’s government is facing a mixed picture domestically, benefitting from higher social spending that lifted purchasing power and higher investments ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections this month and in December. However, internal bickering inside the governing coalition and the swelling in spending are likely to impact the support in the coming weeks.

Elena Lasconi, the leader of the opposition party Save Romania Union, would come in third with 14.3% of the votes, according to the poll, followed by independent candidate and former NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana with 12.2%. The survey, which covered 1,100 people and was conducted between Nov. 7 and Nov. 12, has a 3.9 percentage points margin of error. It also showed Thursday that 14% of respondents were undecided.

The country’s twin elections are being held against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and concerns about fiscal discipline. The budget deficit is now likely to widen beyond 7% of economic output this year, putting pressure on the next administration to potentially raise taxes to trim the shortfall.

Romania is also facing one of the European Union’s highest inflation rates, prompting the central bank to keep borrowing costs steady at 6.5% at its last two meetings. Its economy has also grown less than forecast in recent quarters, with third-quarter data showing growth stagnated.